Wednesday, May 23, 2018

Denmark April 2018 (Draft)

Image result for PHEVs Denmark

The light at the end of the tunnel?

Despite not having the full sales breakdown of PHEV models, i had to publish a post on the moves happening in Denmark, but first, a little of background on the local market is needed, to understand the current moment, after a positive run until 2014, year that PEVs hit 0.9%, things went off-rail in 2015, as the local government announced fiscal changes that would hit EVs in a big way, which lead to a big sales surge by the end of the year, especially regarding Tesla, leading to a record 2.3% share.

But the long, hard road out of hell, didn't ended there, as 2017 was even worse, with another drop, this time to 0.4%, a performance that placed Denmark far behind from their Scandinavian neighbors.    

There have been talks of new fiscal changes for this year, that i do not know if they have been put in place, but one thing is certain, the 2018 picture looks quite different, in more ways than one, first, sales have gone through the roof this year, to 662 units, placing the 2018 PEV share at 0.9%, while at the same time, PHEVs have taken over this market (52% share), a significant change, considering BEVs used to have some 90% share here.

After these context lines, let's go to the fun part: Plug-in sales.

The two times Best Seller (2013 and '14) Nissan Leaf is back to the in the leadership, thanks to the new generation with the local importer betting heavily on its EV, while the remaining podium positions go to the VW Golf GTE (Already sold out for this year!) and Hyundai Ioniq Electric.

Looking below, it's a PHEV-laden topic, with the recent Kia Niro PHEV showing as a possible medal candidate soon.

In the Manufacturers ranking, Nissan is the Best Seller (29%), with Volkswagen in Second Place (19%), and BMW (16%) is in the Third Spot.

Monday, May 21, 2018

China April 2018 (Updated)

Image result for byd tang 2018
New BYD Tang: A future Best Seller?

BYD and small EVs Shine

After the usual off-season (January and February), the Chinese PEV market is back at full charge, with 71,000 units registered in April, up 129% YoY, with the 2018 sales more than doubling regarding the same period last year.

Consequently, the record 3.7% PEV share of April, pulled the 2018 share to 2.3%, already above the 2.1% of 2017, and with sales expected to pick up significantly as the year advances, the 2018 PEV share should end North of the 3% threshold, with December possibly reaching 6%.

Last month, the Chinese OEMs represented roughly 50% of all PEVs registered globally, an impressive number, that is sure to increase during 2018.

With symbolic export numbers, the domestic market is more than enough to absorb the current Chinese production, helped by the fact that it is still a protected market and foreign OEMs hadn’t yet looked seriously at this niche, but with PEV quotas to be fulfilled in the near future, foreign brands are finally putting an effort, proof of that is that overseas makers now have a record 7% share. Of this (small) cake, 3% belong to Tesla, 2% to BMW, with the remaining manufacturers sharing the final 2%.

In April, besides the continuous slooow production ramp up from BYD, registering its second-best month ever (13,200 units), small city EVs were back on the spotlight, besides the usual BAIC EC-Series, the Zhidou D2 EV and the SAIC Baojun E100 also joined the Top 5 Best Sellers of the Month, making this segment hot again.  

Here’s April Top 5 Best Selling models individual performance:

Image result for 2018 BAIC EC-Series
#1 – BAIC EC-Series: After an outlandish Q4 2017, with three five-digit performances, the EC-Series seems to have stabilized around 7-8,000 units/month this year, with April registering 7,471 units, up 72% YoY. The little EV continues being disruptive in the Chinese market, winning 7 of the last 8 Monthly Best-Selling trophies. A cute design helps the EC-Series to be a popular choice in the Chinese Mega-Cities, where the 180 kms range are enough to run around the urban jungle.

Image result for BYD e5 450
#2 – BYD e5: BYD’s Plain Jane electric sedan, a favorite among taxi-drivers, registered 4,294 units in March, a new record for the nameplate for the second month in a row. This second youth is due to a facelift this year and, most importantly, a larger battery, allowing it to improve specs (61 kWh, 400 kms range NEDC, 218 hp), for a competitive price (CNY 220,650 / USD 34,600), the model is a bit of an unsung hero in the BYD stable, as the 73,000 units sold so far mean that it is the brand third bestselling PEV, behind the Qin and Tang models.

Image result for Zhidou D2 EV
#3 – Zhidou D2 EV: If the EC-Series can be considered “cute”, this bare-basics city vehicle design is as dull as a dishwasher. Nevertheless, they continue to be sold in large quantities (4,152 units in April), due to a combination of bargain-basement prices and big fleet deals, aided by updated specs in 2018. This vehicle is sold as a Quadricycle (Think Renault Twizy class) in some European countries, with the following specs: 18 kWh battery, 155 kms range, 100 kms max.speed, all this for some 16,000€.

Image result for 2018 BYD Qin PHEV
#4 – BYD Qin PHEV: The most common plug-in in China (Over 140,000 units) had another good performance in April, with 4,134 units, being BYD’s “Model 3” eighth consecutive “3 to 4 thousand units/month” result (Talk about consistency!). Considering a new Qin is coming in a few months, it is surprising that the current one is still going strong. As for the new generation, sales above 5,000/month should become the norm, becoming the Best Selling BYD.

Image result for 2018 Baojun E100
#5 – SAIC Baojun E100: Shanghai Auto and General Motors have high hopes for their tiny two-seater, and with the MY2018 version being ramped up, it is starting to make an impact on the Chinese plug-in market, having registered 3,760 units last month, a year best. Will it reach the BAIC EC-Series numbers? I wouldn’t rule out that possibility, and even export prospects, as it could be marketed as GM’s Smart-like product outside China. Spec-wise, if range (155 kms NEDC) and power (39 hp) is not amazing, its price (CNY 93,900 / USD 14,700) is, especially considering its modern design and features.

Image result for hawtai xev260
Hawtai xEV260

2018 ranking

There were plenty of changes on the top positions, the most important was the BYD Qin PHEV climbing to Third Spot, making it two BYD’s in the podium, while its sibling e5 joined the Top 5, underlining a positive month for the brand.

Other significant changes were the Roewe i6 PHEV sedan climbing one position to #6, while small EVs (Zhidou D2 EV, Baojun E100, Chery eQ1) are jumping the ranking ladder, now that their specs are complying with the 2018 rules.

Down below, the Hawtai xEV260 jumped two positions, to #18, thanks to 1,418 units, a new record for the compact SUV.

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, BYD is at the throne, but has lost 3% share (24% to 21%), as the market is growing even faster than the BYD ramp up, while the runner-up BAIC also lost ground (15%, down 2%).

In Third Place, the Shanghai-based Roewe (10%) is holding the last place of the podium, but if we look at SAIC’s global result (Roewe+MG+Baojun+Maxus), the share adds up to 14%, confirming it as the Third largest Chinese OEM in the New Energy Vehicles field.

Friday, May 18, 2018

Luxembourg April 2018

Tesla Model S ahead in Models, Volvo leads in Manufacturers

Considering most PEV markets are experiencing two, even three, digits growth rates, Luxembourg can be considered as a slow lane market, after a fast growing 2017, sales in 2018 are just growing 7% YoY, with 290 new PEV's registered in 2018, with the PEV Share showing a rather low 1.5%. Let's hope the second half of the year shows this market back at the fast lande 

The two times Best Seller (2016 & '17) Tesla Model S continues in the lead, with 25 units, but only 9% share, as this is one of the most fragmented markets worldwide. followed closely by the Renault Zoe and the Volvo XC60 PHEV, with the French hatchback trying to recover the Best Selling trophy it had won in 2013 and 2014, while the Swedish SUV is confirming once again its popularity across Europe.

ith surprising low positions, we have the #12 Tesla Model X, with locals showing a distinct preference for its lower-riding sibling, while the BMW i3, #9 last year and #2 in 2016, is just #17 this year, allocation problems?

A different story explains the #20 position of the all-conquering new Nissan Leaf. For some reason, the Japanese hatchback never caught on here, ending in #20 last year, and #12 in 2016. In fact, the highest standing for the Nissan model in Luxembourg was Third, its only podium place, back in 2013. Not enough promotion from the local importer? 

Looking at the manufacturers ranking, we have possibly the most balanced race anywhere, with the current leader Volvo (16%) being closely followed by BMW (15%), with the Third Placed Volkswagen (13%) not that far, while Tesla (12%) and Mercedes (10%) are on the lookout to join the medal positions.

Thursday, May 17, 2018

New Zealand April 2018

Prius PHEV lands with a bang

Last month, 104 plug-ins were sold in New Zealand, up 154%, and pulling the year result to 423 units, helping to place the PEV Share at a record 1.2%.

Looking at the models ranking, the 2018 leadership is in the hands wheels of the usual Best Seller, the Mitsubishi Outlander PHEV, followed by the rising Teslas, with the Model S registering its best off-peak month (18 units), and climbing one position, into Second Place, while the Model X jumped three positions, now being Third.

But the big news was the landing of the PHEV version of the Prius, with 20 registrations in its landing month, a new debut best on this market, and considering the popularity of Toyota in New Zealand, one would say that the leader Outlander PHEV could have here its biggest threat so far.

Elsewhere, Hyundai had a good month, as it saw its Ioniq PHEV climb two positions, to #12, while the BEV version came closer to reach Fourth, thanks to 10 deliveries, while the Porsche Panamera PHEV had its best month so far, by delivering 3 units, jumping to #14 and confirming the popularity of the new Sports Sedan worldwide. 

In the Manufacturers ranking, Tesla is the surprise leader, with 27%, while the seven times Best Selling Manufacturer Mitsubishi is in Second Place (17%), and Hyundai (11%) in Third, but BMW (10%) and Volkswagen (9%) are on the lookout for an opportunity to join the podium. 


Wednesday, May 16, 2018

Germany April 2018

Image result for Smart ED vs e-Golf vs Zoe

Five models running for #1

The PEV Fever has definitely caught on in Germany, with April signaling 5,700 registrations, a 61% increase YoY, with the PEV Share climbing to 2.2%.

But more important than the Plug-in niche, are the seismic changes happening in the fuels mix of the mainstream market: Diesel sales continue to sink (-13%) YoY, to the benefit of all other fuels, regular gasoline-powered cars are up 19%, while alternative fuels are jumping ahead, with the highlights being CNG, up five-fold, and BEVs (+124%), but HEVs (+70%) have also grown significantly, just like PHEVs (+21%), hell, even LPG (+11%) had reasons to smile about, leaving diesel  as the sole loser, with a market share of only 33%, far, far from regular gasoline cars (62%). At this pace, Diesel sales will be dead in das diesel Vaterland by 2021-22...Would someone imagine this four years ago?

Back at Plug-in sales, count with the German PEV market to always deliver surprises, and April was no exception, the Best Selling model last month was the Kia Soul EV (721 units), even if most units end up in Norway (It wouldn't be the first time), this was the best performance for the Kia in 28 months. The Korean was followed by three other BEVs, while in Fifth Place we have another weird surprise, with the Mercedes E350e, registering its third consecutive record performance, with 316 units(!) in April. It seems local taxi drivers are getting into (PH)EVs...

Kia Soul EV
BMW i3
VW e-Golf
Renault Zoe
Mercedes E350e

In a traditionally fragmented market, where the leader has only 8% share, the race for #1 now has five models  separated for only 300 units, if the current leader Smart Fortwo ED continues losing precious ground to its followers, the Kia Soul EV was the one that had more reasons to be happy, not only recovered significant ground regarding the leadership, but also managed to surpass the BMW i3 and reach Fourth Place. 

April had plenty of changes, along with the aforementioned Kia Soul EV, the VW PHEVs had a great month, with the  #6 Golf GTE and the #7 Passat GTE both jumping two places, with the Golf PHEV becoming the new Best Selling PHEV.

The Mercedes E350e also rose two positions, to Tenth, becoming the Best Selling Premium model on the ranking, well ahead of its direct competitor, the BMW 530e, that nevertheless, also had a brilliant month, delivering a record 152 units and allowing it to climb two positions, into #17.

But the model with the highest climb in the ranking was the new Nissan Leaf, leaping 5 positions into #13, with a Top 10 position not that far in the horizon.

On the other hand, last year Best Seller, the Audi A3 e-Tron, despite having climbed two positions in April, it is still in #18, having seen its sales sink 67%(!) YoY. That's how dynamic this market is...

"Well, what about Tesla?" - You might ask.

Speaking of a dynamic market, things are quite different for the automaker in 2018, currently the Model S is only #16, far from the Eighth spot it got last year, and even farther than the #5 of 2016, still its highest standing in Germany. Having scored 544 deliveries in 2018, sales are now down 35% regarding the same period of 2017, possibly due to the Model 3 long shadow. As for the Model X, deliveries are even worse, with 227 units so far,  registrations are down 40% YoY. Are the upcoming German BEV SUVs (Audi e-Tron, Mercedes EQ C...) damaging Tesla's demand? One thing is certain, Tesla needs to do something here, especially considering that this market is on the fast lane (+70% in 2018), having already surpassed Norway as the largest PEV market in Europe.

In the manufacturers ranking, Volkswagen is stable in the leadership, with 19% share, while last year winner BMW is in Second Place, with 16% share, and Third Placed Smart (13%, down 2%) is losing steam charge and watching its immediate competitors (Kia and Mercedes, both with 11%) getting closer.

Regarding the BEV/PHEV share, BEVs are slowly, but surely, winning an edge over PHEVs, in April all-electric vehicles had 54% of all Plug-in sales, pulling their YTD lead up to 52%.


Plug-ins and Regular Hybrids

Toyota C-HR Hybrid
Toyota Yaris Hybrid
Toyota Auris Hybrid
Toyota RAV4 Hybrid
Kia Soul EV

Unlike the PEV market, always filled with surprises, the regular Hybrid market is owned by Toyota, collecting the Top 4 positions, with the Best Selling Plug-in being only Fifth, 500 units behind the leader Yaris Hybrid.